Ok at the 40 minute mark it appeared - thanks @MadFishCommunity

Answer: At the 40 minute mark, it appears that the Tzkt indexer was down, which prevented the transaction from showing on the chain explorer right away. This could have been due to a temporary technical issue, or it could have been caused by a malicious actor attempting to disrupt the network. In either case, it is important to be aware of the potential for such issues and be prepared to respond quickly in order to ensure the security and stability of the network.

Tzkt indexer was down, so it likely happened right away but wasn’t showing on the chain explorer