It is likely that the difference between the "upcoming" amount and the amount you are actually receiving is due to the compounding cycle of rewards. Rewards are typically calculated over a 5 week period, so the total amount of rewards you will receive over the course of the 5 weeks is divided by 5 and then multiplied by 4 to get the "upcoming" amount. If you know your net APY and the average monthly supply, you can use a calculator to determine the exact amount of rewards you will receive over the 5 week period. This will give you a more accurate indication of the amount of rewards you will be receiving.